Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory is down 8.8% even with national supply rising

By Kelly Pearson

Real estate, Primary market

Here's the number that matters most right now. The National Association of Realtors reported inventory rose to 1.60 million homes nationally in September 2026. But locally, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 4,691 homes for sale across our market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That's down 8.8% from the same period a year ago. The national story and the local story are moving in opposite directions.

New listings tell the same story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 4,068 new listings across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That's down 10.5% from a year before. Fewer sellers listed. So buyers had fewer choices, and sellers faced less competition from other sellers.

Sales slipped a little too. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,263 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 1.4% from the same period in 2025. Not a big drop, but pending sales fell 6.3%, which is worth watching. It tells you demand softened some even as supply stayed tight.

Rates are adding pressure for buyers

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. Realtor.com reported rates climbed back above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That affects what buyers can afford, and it's part of why some sellers are sitting on the sideline too. Fewer people want to trade a lower rate for a higher one.

How each ZIP code looked

The market-wide numbers hide a lot of variation. Some ZIP codes are moving fast. Others are sitting longer. Here's how inventory and days on market compared across the area in the three months ending August 31, 2026, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

What this means if you're buying

With inventory down 8.8% locally and new listings down 10.5%, you're working with a smaller pool than you were a year ago. That said, some ZIP codes have more room. Celina (75009) had 1,001 homes for sale. Prosper (75078) had 518. If you have flexibility on location, you have more options. The Real Estate Data Aggregator also shows Prosper's median days on market was 92 days, so sellers there are more likely to negotiate.

What this means if you're selling

Tighter supply helps sellers, but rates above 7% are slowing buyers down. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the Primary market's sale-to-list ratios are still solid across most ZIP codes, but above-list sales are not the norm. In 75013 Allen, only 12.3% of homes sold above list price. Pricing right from the start matters more than it did two years ago. Prep and price are doing the heavy lifting now.

One more thing worth knowing. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home prices were up 1.3% nationally in September 2026. Locally, prices moved in different directions by ZIP. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows Allen 75013 was up 13.8% year over year, while Frisco 75033 was down 8.7%. One area's gain is another's dip. That's why the ZIP code you're in matters as much as the market headline.